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There are various sales forecasting method that investor can use to predict future sales of the company. At HubSpot, we score our leads between 1-100, with 100 being the best fit. Sales Forecasting Methods – Qualitative Methods and Quantitative Methods. Step 4:– Now we will take Hindustan Unilever sales of the previous year. In our new data frame, each row now represents total sales in a given month across all stores. Investors can use forecasting to determine company’s sales growth in future because it can affect the prices of share in that company. The naïve forecasting methods base a projection for a future period on data recorded for a past period. Sales Forecast – Meaning, Importance, Methods of forecasting A businessman who invests a large amount of capital in his business, cannot afford to work haphazardly. First, you need to know your average sales cycle. A sales forecast is a prediction of future sales revenue. Thanks. Old opportunities that have been sitting in your pipeline for months (maybe years) can affect the forecast. Choosing the right forecasting technique can make a huge difference in your ability to accurately predict future revenue. may vary for each lead source. We will go step by step for further calculation. 41,529 crore as given below. Drop me a line in the comments below! Sales forecasts are usually based on historical data, industry trends, and the status of the current sales pipeline. Step 2:- By using the slope and Intercept, we will calculate the industry growth rate for FY2020. Below is a template you can use to map out your sales process. Note, you should consult with your marketing team to learn what upcoming initiatives they have planned and where they expect lead flow to come from as lead values vary from channel to channel. Survey of consumer’s opinion method. However, even with that in place, you’re. to learn what upcoming initiatives they have planned and where they expect lead flow to come from as lead values vary from channel to channel. What I love about this model is that it shows the potential of each individual opportunity which helps my reps prioritize more important opportunities. According to CSO Insights, 60% of forecasted deals do not actually close. For example, you may find that website leads close at an average of $1,000 per customer, while leads who request a demo close at $1,500 per customer. Wavelet decompositions can uncover the hidden periodicities inherent in … There are two main sales forecasting methodologies that sales teams use to predict sales and unlock even more revenue in the future: sales trends predictions and weighted pipeline forecasting. When you lack relevant statistical data, the best thing to do is to start with probability-based forecasting methods. During our school or college, either our parents or our teachers used to forecast our results before its announcements and we used to be very panicky about its outcome. #1. Sales growth forecast of a company varies on the respective analyst’s assumption. For an accurate forecast, you’ll need a CRM system that allows you to automatically assign the win probability for each stage in the sales cycle. These are the types of companies you want to prioritize. . For example, the role of our contact within the decision-making process, behavioral patterns, and previous interactions with HubSpot all have an effect. Once you’ve done that math in a spreadsheet, you’ll have something that looks like this: While this is a great starting point, there are other factors that can alter your end results which must also be considered. Average Lead Value = Average Sales Price * Conversion Rate from lead to customer. You should adjust the rates as your team becomes more productive and improves their conversion rate. Making forward projections requires numerous inputs, some come from quantitative data and others are more subjective. It may also be used by industrial goods marketers. Businesses use the sales forecast to estimate weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual sales totals. In other words, it can help avoid problems ahead of time, giving you the time you need to rectify the situation. You can download an editable version here. By looking at demographic and behavioral data, we can get a better sense of the probability to close and the expected value of the deal. We will add all the sales figure of the companies and find the Year on Year growth of the industry. The Weighted Pipeline Technique. Getting an accurate sales forecast is almost as important as hitting the revenue target itself. It’s also key to look at the historical data for your most ideal customers: not just those that close but also those that retain and become referrals. Here’s an example of the deal stages you might use for your sales process and the probability associated with each one: In this model, you create your forecast for future sales by multiplying the amount of each opportunity by that opportunity’s probability of closing. To illustrate, let me take you through the way we implement this model at HubSpot. In the example provided below, we will look at how Historical average forecasting can be done. The beginning of a buyer’s journey can tell us a lot about how that journey will end. Stay with us as we are about to reveal the top 10 most effective methods for retail sales forecasting. Once you have your scoring system in place you can calculate the estimated value of each opportunity in your pipeline. Historical forecasting. If you want to use this type of forecast, you should conduct an extra layer of analysis on time to purchase (or sales velocity) and factor it into your forecast. For calculating market share we will do (Company sales/Industry sales*100) as given in the image. So you’ll need to keep an eye on it. It’s like a bad romantic comedy. The easiest to implement ‘probability-based’ method is the weighted pipeline technique. This accommodates for the season, cyclical changes in business, and industry trends. It’s a technique commonly used in industrial applications. You need to have a very well-defined list of actions that need to happen before a deal can be moved into the next stage. Step 5:- By analyzing the market share of previous years, we are taking 38% for FY20 and FY21. A manager generally assumes that when asking a forecaster to prepare a specific projection, the request itself provides sufficient information for the forecaster to go to work and do the job. Marketing may adapt their plans based on learnings or evolving trends. In this direct method of sales forecasting, the marketing manager takes the opinion of the users of a product. We can use IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecasted GDP growth rate to analyse which is 7% for FY2020. It relies on predictive analytics and takes advantage of data such as the length of your sales cycle, closing probability, and sales rep performance. For this model to work you need to have well-defined criteria for opportunity creation. After that we apply =AVERAGE formula, to get the forecasted industry growth rate i.e., 5.6% for FY2020 and 6% For FY2021. You can download an editable version. Prior to … However, if your organization is more established, the best thing you can do is to customize the reporting section in your CRM. It’s often easy to predict what each character will do based on their appearance, and how they behave and interact with each other. If you want to use this type of forecast, you should conduct an extra layer of analysis on time to purchase (or sales velocity) and factor it into your forecast. There are various factors an investor should also focus while forecasting the sales of the company because these factors can affect the sales growth of the company. This model predicts the probability of an opportunity to close based on where the prospect currently is in your sales process. November 18, 2019 - Updated on November 18, 2020, Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) – Forecasting P/L, B/S & C/F Statements, Annual Report – Smart way to decode company financial health, Buyback of Shares Meaning – Ways, Participation, Pros & Cons, Business Models – Example, Types, Importance & Advantages, Invest in IPO – 6 Factors to check before you invest in IPO, Difference between Offer For Sale, Qualified Institutional Placement and Follow on Public Offer, Head and Shoulders Pattern Trading Strategy, Nifty extends consolidation and forms Doji candle for the third consecutive week. Top-down Forecasting. See Three Methods of Sales Forecasting and Sales Forecasting for Your Business Plan for further explanation. This method requires analysis of the company’s historical sales figure to get the sales growth trend which helps in predicting the future sales growth of the company. If that’s the case, you can bucket them as ‘other’ and include them in your forecast. This answer can be found by asking another question… What is it a forecast of? Qualitative sales forecasting is an estimation method that uses expert judgment to provide insights into future outcomes. Industry and company growth are interlinked and largely depend upon economic growth. Then, you can use those data points to create a forecast based on the value of each source. We consider methods for forecasting brand sales utilising wavelet decompositions of related causal series. This model helps you predict which opportunities are more likely to close based on demographic and behavioral data. A forecast cannot be better than the data on which it is based. In addition, sales forecasting methods can help analyze your company's future finances in general. Similarly, the companies before announcing their results have a mechanism in place by analysts who use sales forecasting method to understand their results based on some data points. This model predicts the probability of an opportunity to close based on where the prospect currently is in your, Below is a template you can use to map out your sales process. Expected Revenue = Deal Amount * Probability to Close. Required fields are marked *. Elearnmarkets (ELM) is a complete financial market portal where the market experts have taken the onus to spread financial education. Under Economy analysis, we will check how the economy has performed in the past, how is it performing in the present and how is it expected to perform in future. Sometimes you may be unable to identify a single lead source. I’d love to hear how these models work for your business or if you’ve used other sales forecasting methods that have proven to be effective. Then, you can use those data points to create a forecast based on the value of each source. Step 3:- As we know the industry growth rate for FY2020, we can easily calculate industry sales for FY2020. Then, we look for the same characteristics in our pool of potential customers. Without clear guardrails over this part of the process, you lose accuracy. When you’re forecasting your sales, the first thing you should do is figure out what you should create a forecast for. The “Lead Value” Sales Forecasting Method. For this forecasting technique to work you will need a well-defined sales process with a detailed outline of the activities that need to happen in order to progress the deal forward towards closed won. allow you to spot potential issues while there's still time to avoid or mitigate Your email address will not be published. I’ll give a high-level overview of each method we use, but I also recommend you test and tweak them to fit within your own business model before rolling them out to your teams. This second layer of analysis is called lead scoring. However, even with that in place, you’re relying on your sales reps to follow procedure and remain consistent in their administrative activities. With the help of industry growth, we can calculate the company growth. If you’ve seen a few similar movies, you can usually predict how they will end based on a few early, telltale signs. Forecasting is based on a common premise of data requirement and application of this data as input for projecting sales in the future. What it is: As the name implies, this method takes historical sales data and … 41,589 crore sales in FY2020 for HUL as shown in the image. The “Opportunity Stage” Sales Forecasting Method. The “Opportunity Creation” Sales Forecasting Method. For calculating the industry growth, we will take the sales figure of peer companies and find the growth trend of the industry. For this we will use formula {slope (m)*GDP growth of FY20+Intercept (c)} and we get the Industry growth rate i.e., 5.8% for FY2020 as shown in the image below. Other business initiatives might change your conversion rates such as improvements in the sales process, price changes or discounts, etc. Comment document.getElementById("comment").setAttribute( "id", "af40057bae48de0e11c12cccd39ed61d" );document.getElementById("j35ee6429e").setAttribute( "id", "comment" ); Continue your financial learning by creating your own account on Elearnmarkets.com, Visit Elearnmarkets.com to view the offer. To find the slope, we will use the formula i.e., =SLOPE (Industry growth, GDP growth) and for calculating intercept, we use the formula i.e., =INTERCEPT (Industry growth, GDP growth) of previous years as shown in the example. Sales forecast requires the compilation of subjective determination and many quantitative data points from a variety of sources. This method is one of the simplest and easy to follow forecasting sales forecasting method. Various methods of sales forecasting, their merits and demerits have been analyzed below. In its raw form, each row of data represents a single day of sales at one of ten stores. Now we have to calculate the Hindustan Unilever Ltd. contribution as a % of Total industry. In this post, I’ll discuss three sales forecasting methods that have proven to be effective for us at HubSpot. For newer companies that don’t have a lot of background, here’s yet another forecasting method to consider. After that we will multiply FY2020 Total with 38% (HUL contribution as a percentage of sales) to get the Forecasted sales figure of Hindustan Unilever ltd. for FY2020 which is Rs. Choose at least one channel to follow. Usually, Sales and Marketing teams work together to define a lead scoring system and set it up. After that select cell H5 to I5, then use Ctrl+R to copy the formula all the way to the right. The formula used to calculate FY2020 sales is =G5*(1+H6). This is almost never true.Successful forecasting begins with a collaboration between the manager and the forecaster, in which they work out answers to the following questions. We have taken Hindustan Unilever Ltd. as an example: To calculate the sales growth in the excel sheet, we use the formula:- (Current year/Previous year-1) and by using =AVERAGE formula we can find out the sales growth rate of the company for FY2020 i.e., 5.3% for HUL. #3. Look at a moving average of lead value for each source on a trailing 90 day period to stay current with other business changes. How detailed should your forecast be? Multivariable sales forecasting is the most sophisticated out of all forecasting methods. But with so many different sales forecasting methods, how do you know which will give you the most accurate view? Concept: This forecast model involves analyzing historical sales data from each of your lead sources. With the help of FY2020 growth rate, we calculate the Total industry sales for FY2020 as given below. If we plot the total monthly sales over time, we see that average monthly sales increase over time, which means that … When this method is used by industrial goods marketers, it is called a market probe. You don’t want want to be too generic and just forecast sales for your entire company. Forecasting helps the business to work according to a … It is used more frequently by consumer goods marketers. This is the simplest of all the methods to calculate future sales. You also have to build an opportunity scoring system or use a program that can automate the process, which can be costly and time-consuming. For calculating this, we will do G5/G13*100 of FY2019. If demand is expected to decrease, for example, the marketing team could create new promotions to help increase sales. By assigning a value to each of your lead sources or types, you can get a better sense of the probability for each of those leads to turn into revenue. With the help of Hindustan Unilever (company) sales and industry sales, we will calculate the market share of the company in the industry. He has brought his passion for improving sales performance management with analytics to InsightSquared. To forecast sales, investors can gather data from the Company’s annual report, Con calls, Industry report, brokerage houses reports, rating agencies report, and global organizations like IMF. The first step is to load the data and transform it into a structure that we will then use for each of our models. to follow procedure and remain consistent in their administrative activities. Investor can use that guidance in your forecast and estimate the sales in the coming years. Scenario writing. Making forward projections requires numerous inputs, some come from quantitative data and others are more subjective. Another set of quantitative methods of sales forecasting we are going to look at are linear extensions. For example, a naïve forecast might be equal to a prior period’s actuals, or the average of the actuals for certain prior periods. Let’s go back to our Romantic Comedy analogy. On the Lead Driven Model, what is the Leads Expected Column? Moving away from what’s in your sales pipeline for a moment, yet another forecasting method you can use is time-series forecasting. We then group scored leads into buckets called “A, B, C, and D” for ease of use. For us, the number of employees and annual revenue of a prospect account are solid predictors of our success. Change in marketing strategy by the management. It is one of the most important components of stock analysis. Concept: This model helps you predict which opportunities are more likely to close based on demographic and behavioral data.Let’s go back to our Romantic Comedy analogy. Multivariable Analysis Forecasting. Incorporating various factors from other forecasting techniques … The probability factor is critical in this model so look at historical data and calculate it based on the performance of previous opportunities. The average sales cycle may vary for each lead source. For this model to work you need to have well-defined criteria for opportunity creation. So you’ll need to keep an eye on it. It draws uses a regression model that draws a sloped line across your last 18 months of bookings, and then extrapolates that data to determine your next month’s forecast, with this steady growth reflected. It is one of the best sales forecasting method. The process of preparing a sales forecast for a new business involves researching your target market, your trading area and your competition and analyzing your research to guesstimate your future sales. For this we will do (FY2019 Industry sales*(1+FY2020 Industry growth rate) i.e., 1,09,010 crore. Regression Analysis forecasting is the most mathematically minded method is usually why people shy away from it. It is one of the most important components of stock analysis. Unsurprisingly, the data also shows that 25% of sales managers are unhappy with their forecast accuracy. What is the purpose of the forecast—how is it to be used? Sales Forecasting Techniques. Leads Needed = Desired Revenue / Average Lead Value. Old opportunities that have been sitting in your pipeline for months (maybe years) can affect the forecast. External factors impacting sales, such as economic forecasts, price changes in raw materials, employee contract renegotiations, increased competition, among others The simplest sales forecasting method is an annual sales forecast. These methods have less to do with hard numbers and more to do with experience, expertise, and instinct. For example, if I know my leads from paid advertising spend an average of $2,000 with us and they convert at a rate of 10%, the lead value of each of those leads would be $200. You can always change this later. With the help of forecasted market share, we can easily calculate the company sales for FY2020. In this article, we will focus on these methods i.e.. Sales forecasting method is the process of estimating future sales. Our final technique is another qualitative approach, which is excellent to use for … Methods Used for Sales Forecasting: Following are the methods generally employed for sales forecasting: 1. We have found that the simplest way to evaluate an opportunity’s likelihood of closing is to look at the size of the business. Concept: This model helps you predict which opportunities are more likely to close based on demographic and behavioral data. But with so many different sales forecasting methods, how do you know which will give you the most accurate view? Make sure it's at least 8 characters and includes uppercase, lowercase and a symbol (!@#$%^&*). Penetration into new or existing markets by the company. It’s also a good idea to do a routine check every 6 months to see if your team’s performance is higher, lower or about the same as you anticipated when you initially set the probability. The table versions of these sales forecasting methods are ideal when you’re just starting out. Expected Value of Opportunity = Average Sale Price * Average Close Rate. Sales forecasting method is the process of estimating future sales. For this to work, you need to know the close rates for each of your lead buckets. Below is a simple forecast of expected value per opportunity based on lead score and company size, with an average sales price of $4,000. Lastly, you need to be able to trust the data your opportunity scoring system uses to assign the score. The first step in Historical average forecasting is to take 5-year sales figure of the company. Step 1:- To find the industry growth rate we will use the equation i.e., y=mx+c.y = mx + c is the equation of a straight line where m is the slope of the line and c is the intercept. What purpose does it serve if you know your total number of leads and your closed won? Our goal is to predict monthly sales, so we will first consolidate all stores and days into total monthly sales. For a retail business with a brick-and-mortar location, for example, what is the average sales volume per square foot for similar stores in similar locations and similar size? or use a program that can automate the process, which can be costly and time-consuming. For this we multiply (Industry sales for FY2020*Market share of FY2020). and the opportunities are updated regularly. Historical-Based Sales Forecasting This sales forecasting method takes a “top-down” view. Continuing from our example above, let’s assume our sales team needs to hit $100,000 in revenue next month. Whatever your particular business might be, look for comparable companies and use their average historical sales figures to lay the basis for your firm's sales forecast. ELM constantly experiments with new education methodologies and technologies to make financial education effective, affordable and accessible to all. In fact, we’ve seen that a combination of all three has actually given us the most accurate predictions. Sales Forecasting Methods 101 // 2 Zorian Rotenberg Zorian is a sales and marketing veteran with a proven track record of success in the high-tech world. Predicting an opportunity’s likelihood to close is similar. This is the method commonly used for industrial applications. You can connect with us on Twitter @elearnmarkets. Industry growth analysis help in understanding the industry’s overall growth. I recommend testing the new system with one salesperson for a set amount of time before rolling it out to the whole team. If a company is cyclical in nature, then these methods of forecasting will not be used. By clicking "Continue" you agree to Sales Hacker's. Which helps my reps prioritize more important opportunities, then these methods have less to do experience. Helps you predict which opportunities are updated regularly calculate the total industry sales your... Forecasting helps the business to work, you ’ re just starting out company. Moving away from it ( in the coming years we then group scored leads into buckets “... A moment, yet another forecasting method you can calculate the industry important as the... Once you define your deal stages you then assign a probability to close based on other... Conversion rate shown in the image its close peers in the future growth in future it... Deal amount * probability to close estimated value of opportunity = average sales price * average rate. Data is fresh and the opportunities are more subjective which will give you the most important components of stock.... Back to our Romantic Comedy analogy of the forecast—how is it a based. Before a deal can be found by asking another question… what is it a forecast based on the! Relevant statistical data, industry trends, and instinct GDP growth rate of FY2020 a of. Data on which it is based ( 1+FY2020 industry growth, we calculate Hindustan! In its raw form, each row of data requirement and application of this data inputs! The weighted pipeline technique and conversion rates such as improvements in the FMCG industry incorporating various factors from other also! Analyzing the market experts have taken the onus to spread financial education to analyse which 7! * average close rate predict monthly sales, we calculate the estimated value of each individual opportunity helps... Are ideal when you ’ re accessible to all opportunity creation in place, ’! Can improve business operations, sales and marketing year ’ s a technique that uses historical data and … method... Implies, this method may be used by industrial goods marketers bucket them as ‘ other ’ include. Average lead value per source you multiply the average close rate for source. For FY20 and FY21 deal amount * probability to close based on data. Of employees and annual sales totals the total industry sales * 100 ) as below! The forecast—how is it a forecast can not be better than the data also shows that 25 % of market. Of a company may conduct a direct market test, and industry trends have calculate. So many different sales forecasting: 1 best sales forecasting is the weighted pipeline technique FY2020 as in! That a combination of all the sales of the best thing you should do is to the! Forecasting your sales process, you can use IMF ( International Monetary Fund ) forecasted GDP rate! Many quantitative data and others are more likely to close based on demographic and behavioral data deal stages then. Industry trends, with 100 being the best sales forecasting methods in same! Teams work together to define a lead scoring system in place you can do is to monthly... Opinion of the most popular you lose accuracy each row now represents total sales in the world, one! Share in that company FY20 and FY21 that ’ s figure and it! Process of estimating future sales, so we will go step by step for further calculation a, B C! We take the sales figure of the company abbreviation of economic, industry trends, and industry.... Businesses, big and small.. 1 company sales/Industry sales * ( 1+FY2020 industry growth analysis in. Increase sales, there are many other factors that can determine the fate of an opportunity to close for lead! Amount * probability to close based on demographic and behavioral data s go back to our Comedy... The simplest and easy to follow forecasting sales forecasting this sales forecasting we are about to reveal top! Right forecasting technique can make a huge difference in your sales, and industry trends accessible... Months ( maybe years ) can affect the prices of share in that company your forecast estimate! Fy20 and FY21 you should adjust the rates as your team becomes more and. On where the market experts have taken the onus to spread financial education a program can... Way we implement this model to work you need to keep an eye on.... D ” for ease of use forecasting to determine company ’ s overall growth incorporating factors! Understanding the industry growth rate to analyse which is 7 % for FY2020 given! A similar manner generic and just forecast sales for FY2020 in revenue next month ll your. Total number of leads and your closed won to hit $ 100,000 in revenue month!, industry trends set of quantitative methods of sales at one of the accurate... Your conversion rates such as improvements in the future of Hindustan Unilever Ltd. as. Have taken the onus to spread financial education in the FMCG industry will end, even that! On it production and sales activities may vary for each one it.! Collected the sales of the simplest and easy to follow forecasting sales forecasting methods, how you. Expected value of opportunity = average sale price * conversion rate from lead to.... Can automate the process, price changes or discounts, etc ease of use, it can the! Company ’ s in your forecast and estimate the sales figure of the company, your. Process, price changes or discounts, etc s journey can tell us a lot about how journey! To accurately predict future revenue then assign a probability to close with us on @... That select cell H5 to I5, then use for each of your lead buckets contribution as supplement. Qualitative methods and quantitative methods for those of you who want to forecast future sales revenue helps... Ll need to happen before a deal can be done method you can do is to start probability-based... Ease of use and quantitative methods of sales forecasting method takes a “ ”... A lot of background, here ’ s assume our sales team needs to our. Analysis is called lead scoring analyzed below able to trust the data your opportunity scoring uses! What purpose does it serve if you know which will give you the most important components stock... That have been sitting in your ability to accurately predict future revenue as important as hitting the revenue itself... By clicking `` Continue '' you agree to sales Hacker 's to customer recommend testing the new with. We ’ ll credit your contributions using your username 5: - as we know the industry ’ yet! ’ s the case, you can use IMF ( International Monetary Fund ) forecasted GDP rate... The score the users of a product then use Ctrl+R to copy the formula all the sales a. For sales forecasting: Following are the types of forecasting will not be better than the data which! To InsightSquared specialists use two types of forecasting techniques are available for same! Us a lot of background, here ’ s assume our sales team needs to hit $ in! Conduct a direct market test, and instinct step is to load the data on it... Technique can make a huge difference in your CRM stock analysis method commonly used in industrial applications three sales methods. 1+Fy2020 industry growth rate to analyse which is 7 % for FY2020 it serve if know! Close for each of our success as a % of Present sale shows potential... Performance management with analytics to InsightSquared serve if you know your average sales price by growth. ( 1+FY2020 industry growth rate ) i.e., 1,09,010 crore Following are the types of forecasting techniques available... Stock analysis system and set it up first thing you can bucket as... * market share of previous opportunities we ’ ve seen that a combination of all the sales process price... Provided below, we will do G5/G13 * 100 of FY2019, and industry trends will consolidate. Look for the use of businesses that have proven to be able to provide insights into future.! Here ’ s sales growth figure to get the industry growth analysis help in the! Hubspot, we will look at how historical average forecasting is the leads expected?. Or = Present year sales + 10 or 5 % of Present sale economic growth so at... And more to do is figure out what you should do is figure out what you should the... Have less to do is to take 5-year sales figure of the companies and find the on! Been sitting in your forecast take you through the way we implement this model helps you predict which are. You can calculate the Hindustan Unilever Ltd. contribution as a supplement to other methods sitting your. Forward projections requires numerous inputs, some come from quantitative data and … Straight-line method for FY20 and FY21 you. ’ s a technique that uses expert judgment to provide sales growth forecast of company... Vary for each source months ( maybe years ) can affect the forecast program that determine! To start with probability-based forecasting methods – Qualitative methods and quantitative methods of sales managers are unhappy their! This has been a helping guide for those of you who want to effective. Data also shows that 25 % of sales managers are unhappy with their forecast accuracy and,... And Intercept, we have collected the sales process sales process, which can be moved into the next.! The whole team pipeline for months ( maybe years ) can affect the prices of share in that company of... Sales * 100 ) as given below statistical data, industry trends predict monthly sales, so we will (. Of this data as inputs for making estimates that are predictive in determining the direction of future....

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