oil supply and demand graph 2020

As well as the negative impact on demand of the coronavirus, the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting was seen by traders as a bearish signal. This includes an estimated annual decline of 4.2 mb/d in February, of which 3.6 mb/d was in China. While this is a large change, it is happening from record high levels. Citizens are no longer driving to work; planes remain on the ground. The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. With falling demand and increasing supply, the front-month price of the U.S. benchmark crude oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell from a year-to-date high closing price of $63.27 per barrel (b) on January 6 to a year-to-date low of $20.37/b on March 18 (Figure 1), the lowest nominal crude oil price since February 2002. However, demand from the aviation sector will continue to suffer from the contraction in global air travel. Our balances assume an increase in Libyan production from 0.3 mb/d currently to 0.7 mb/d in December. The IEA Oil Market Report (OMR) is one of the world's most authoritative and timely sources of data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market – including detailed statistics and commentary on oil supply, demand, inventories, prices and refining activity, as well as oil trade for IEA and selected non-IEA countries. Oil - US Crude IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long Oil - US Crude for the first time since Dec 09, 2020 when Oil - US Crude traded near 4,590.60. Global oil supply fell in September as OPEC+ countries improved the compliance rate with their agreement. Reflecting new data we have revised down our demand estimates for the third quarter of 2020 (-0.2 mb/d), with weakness seen particularly in North America (including Mexico) and India. The report provides a detailed analysis of key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand, supply as well as the oil market balance. As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. Global oil supply fell by 580 kb/d in February as production from Libya slowed to a trickle. With extraordinary uncertainty clouding the immediate outlook for the global oil market both on the demand and supply sides, and of course for prices which ended the week $5/bbl (Brent) lower than on the eve of the OPEC+ meeting, the IEA will continue to monitor the situation closely. TABLE OF CONTENTS. The trajectory for Covid-19 infections is strongly upwards in many countries and governments are tightening restrictions on the movements of their citizens. Countries. Also, maintenance and unplanned outages curbed output in Brazil, Canada and the North Sea. 2020 Oil Prices. OPEC estimated that total global oil demand will come in at 99.73 million b/d in 2020, with the second half of the year expected to see higher consumption than the first half. US Crude Oil Supply and Demand Trends. 2009), which will shift the supply curve to the right and reduce oil prices. Strong gains in global refinery throughput in July and relatively stable runs in August and September came at the cost of steep falls in margins, which in 3Q20 saw one of their worst quarters. In the past few weeks, Covid-19 (coronavirus) has gone from being a Chinese health crisis to a global health emergency. Global refining throughput in 2020 is expected to decline for the second consecutive year, falling below 2017 levels as demand for transport fuels plunges in the wake of the coronavirus. - - OIL WORLD ANNUAL 2020 - - On about 730 pages the ANNUAL provides analyses and statistics of the 2019/20 world supply & demand situation and of the prospects for all major oilseeds, oils/fats and oilmeals. Download Annual Statistic Supplement 2020 (pdf), Data, forecasts and analysis on the global oil market, Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. The International Energy Agency has cut its oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next on weakness in major world economies. North Sea Dated, remained below the futures front month reflecting a well-supplied prompt market. If these countries cannot supply oil because they are impeded from doing so, and demand remains constant, oil prices will go up. On March 5, 2020, OPEC proposed a 1.5 million barrel per day (mb/d) production cut for the second quarter of 2020, of which 1 mb/d would come from OPEC countries and 0.5 mb/d from non-OPEC but aligned producers, most prominently Russia. Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart. Stock change for crude oil excludes lease stocks beginning with January 2005 (see explanatory notes). In February and into March, Chinese run cuts pressured the price of crude from the Middle East and West Africa in particular. This is a sharp downgrade from the IEA’s forecast in February, which predicted global oil demand would grow by 825,000 barrels a day in 2020. However, as we said in last month’s Report, the outlook remains fragile. ICE Brent fell below $46/bbl during 6 March, the lowest level since June 2017. Total non-OPEC supply is set to drop by 2.6 mb/d in 2020 before recovering by 0.4 mb/d in 2021. Around the world the supply of oil far exceeds demand for it, as governments try to limit the spread of covid-19. This implies a huge and ever widening gap between oil supply and the demand profiles. Freight rates remain at historically weak levels as tanker activity sits at a near 10% deficit to 2019 levels. ICE Brent fell by-$3.15/bbl and NYMEX WTI by -$2.76/bbl m-o-m to $41.87/bbl and $39.63/bbl, respectively. This outbreak gives negative effects on the country’s economy from global supply and demand shocks and also domestic factors during the lockdown. Updated: Monthly | Last Updated: 12/08/2020 Oil markets often respond to changing expectations of future supply and demand. World Oil Supply And Price Outlook - September 2020. The world’s transportation sector is almost totally dependent on petroleum … Growing economies increase demand for energy in general and especially for transporting goods and materials from producers to consumers. 2020 is a challenging year for most of the industries in the world due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. This implies a huge and ever widening gap between oil supply and the demand profiles. Interactive charts of West Texas Intermediate (WTI or NYMEX) crude oil prices per barrel back to 1946. ... IG Client Sentiment Index: Crude Oil (June 22, 2020) (Chart 1) Oil - … As shown in Chart 2, US oil demand peaked in 2005. Robust non-OPEC supply gains of 2.1 mb/d in 2020 and a contraction in demand cut the call on OPEC crude to 27.3 mb/d. Satellite data show a near 1 mb/d increase in Chinese stocks, reflecting slowing demand. The IEA predicts non-OPEC supply to expand by 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) this year and by another 2.2 mb/d in 2020, with demand growth figures running at about half those levels. Europe could face a shortage of oil within the next decade, making the move to increase the use of low carbon energy even more urgent, according to a … In this context, governments do not need to take strong containment measures and use of transport remains closer to normal. The current level of U.S. crude oil production as of December 2020 is 11,000.00 thousand barrels per day. EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 27.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million b/d in 2020. Textual analysis. In this case, global oil demand could grow by 480,000 barrels per day in 2020. IEA (2020), Oil Market Report - March 2020, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-march-2020. Data are far from complete but, in the first quarter, the visible decline in transport, industrial and commercial activity points to a massive drop in global oil demand of 2.5 mb/d compared with the first quarter of last year. A statement issued at the end of the meeting made no mention of supply restraint, saying only that further consultations will take place. The resulting higher oil prices have bolstered non-OPEC output and OPEC is expected to restrain output in 2020. ... At the end, what matters for crude oil is supply and demand. The forward curve for 3.5% fuel oil suggests strength may continue into 2020. In October, Hurricane Delta shut in record volumes of United States offshore production, although initial reports suggest that damage to infrastructure is limited and output is expected to recover quickly. Interactive historical chart showing the monthly level of U.S. crude oil production back to 1983 from the US Energy Information Adminstration (EIA). The Energy Information Administration released its Short-Term Energy Outlook for September, and it shows that OECD oil inventories likely bottomed in this cycle in June 2018 at 2.804 billion barrels. The price of oil shown is adjusted for inflation using the headline CPI and is shown by default on a logarithmic scale. Covid-19 (coronavirus) has spread beyond China and our 2020 base case global oil demand forecast is cut by 1.1 mb/d. Projected oil demand in Asia-Pacific is the highest in the world, at 36.7 million barrels daily in 2020, followed closely by the Americas. Recent developments in US oil demand tell a similar story. Global supply fell 0.6 mb/d to 91.1 mb/d in September, down 8.7 mb/d on 2019, as the UAE slashed output and maintenance cut flows in the North Sea and Brazil, more than offsetting a US rebound from August’s hurricane shut-ins. IEA's oil market report was released yesterday suggesting a Q4 2020 market deficit of 4.1 mb/d. Stocks peaked at 3.204 billion in May 2020. - The supply-demand imbalance favors dwindling supplies over the coming months, a tailwind for crude oil prices. SOYBEANS : World Supply and Demand ( Mn T ) … In our base case, the outbreak is brought under control in China by the end of the first quarter but spreads across many other countries beyond Iran, Korea, Japan, Singapore, the United States and Europe. Under almost any scenario, the world is likely to require significant amounts of investment in new oil production for many years to come. See Definitions, Sources, and Notes link above for more information on this table. Preliminary data for September show that crude stocks in the US and Japan fell by 6.5 mb and 1.8 mb, respectively, while those in Europe rose by 3.3 mb. In 2021, runs will rebound only partially, to levels last seen in 2015. Oil Prices Fall As Supply Jumps. In a more optimistic high case, we assume that the situation comes swiftly under control in China and the most serious contagion remains limited to a few countries, with no serious impact in most of Europe and North America. Coronavirus Data and Insights . Earlier this month, the OECD lowered its global economic growth estimate for 2020 by 0.5% to 2.4%, a revision that is factored in to our latest projections. This chart shows how projections of changes in Saudi Arabia crude oil production results in changes in WTI crude oil prices. This year, the report considers topics such as the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on demand; slowing supply growth in the United States and other non-OPEC countries; and the level of spare production capacity in OPEC countries to help meet demand growth. Download Annual Statistic Supplement 2019 (pdf), Keep up to date with our latest news and analysis by subscribing to our regular newsletter. OPEC said worldwide oil demand was expected to increase by nearly 10 million barrels per day (b/d) over the long term, rising to 109.3 million b/d in 2040, and to 109.1 million b/d in 2045. Global oil supply fell by 580 kb/d in February as production from Libya slowed to a trickle. Six months ago leading oil producers came together, supported by an extraordinary meeting of G20 energy ministers, to coordinate massive production cuts to offset the collapse in oil demand caused by Covid-19 lockdowns and so provide life support to the oil market. At 100 mb/d, output was virtually flat on a year ago, with non-OPEC gains of 2.4 mb/d offsetting declines from OPEC. See also: List of countries by Oil Reserves There are 1.65 trillion barrels of proven oil reserves in the world as of 2016. Posted on October 17, 2020 October 16, 2020 by Robert Boslego. The group’s current 2.1 mb/d of production cuts are due to expire at the end of the month. Find out about the world, a region, or a country, Find out about a fuel, a technology or a sector, Explore the full range of IEA's unique analysis, Search, download and purchase energy data and statistics, Search, filter and find energy-related policies, Shaping a secure and sustainable energy future, Clean Energy Transitions in Emerging Economies, Digital Demand-Driven Electricity Networks Initiative, Global Commission for Urgent Action on Energy Efficiency, Promoting digital demand-driven electricity networks, Download Annual Statistic Supplement 2019. 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